BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in North Dakota has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+51%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has risen sharply in North Dakota: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in North Dakota is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.06–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in North Dakota is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.06–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.220.060.39
20270.220.060.39
20280.230.060.39
20290.230.060.40
20300.230.060.40

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walcott320121974
Kempton220171994
Emerado220251981
Niles220192016
Abercrombie220121970
Bowesmont 2220162016
Forman120161970
Sydney119741971
Edgeley120252025
Danzig120102010
Cooperstown120251970
Buchanan120152005
Bowesmont119961973
Nash120171980
Lakota120051993
Rolla120021969
Carpio120162016
Loraine120182018
Stanley120142014
Denbigh120221997
Turtle Mtns120221980
Montpelier120242010
Abercrombie 2120172017

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.