BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Kansas has surged: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+167%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Kansas: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.54.9
20273.72.54.9
20283.82.65.0
20293.82.65.1
20303.92.75.1

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wellington1320251968
Wreford1020241967
Solomon920251982
Lincolnville820242002
Bucyrus720252022
Trading Post720252000
Le Loup720212000
Hanover620251969
Hollenberg620251969
Beloit 2620182005
Berwet620252000
Rock Creek 2620252022
Ellinor520251969
Grantville520221968
Morehead520252001
Reece520252000
Olsburg520252000
Humboldt420221968
Dalton420251968
Olathe420211967
Buckeye420231967
Kanopolis420251967
Rock Creek420211968
Seneca420221967
Galesburg320251967

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.