BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Kansas has surged: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+138%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Kansas: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.8 (95% range 2.6–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.8 (95% range 2.6–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.62.44.8
20263.72.44.9
20273.72.54.9
20283.82.55.0
20293.82.65.0

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wellington1020241968
Wreford1020241967
Dalton920241968
Reece920242000
Ellinor820241969
Lincolnville820242002
Morehead720242001
Trading Post720242000
Le Loup720212000
Beloit 2620182005
Grantville520221968
Hanover520231969
Covert520241968
Berwet520242000
Severance520242000
Humboldt420221968
Olathe420211967
Barclay420241967
Buckeye420231967
Rock Creek420211968
Seneca420221967
Minneapolis320191968
Logan320221968
Pittsburg320212000
Olsburg320242000

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.