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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Virginia has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has risen sharply in Virginia: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Virginia is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.3–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Virginia is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.3–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Natural Brid2420241974
Partlow1320151977
Moran1320241996
Blacksburg1320241988
Amherst1220241967
Carters Brdg 21220242015
Isom1120241969
W Augusta1020241967
Covesville1020241967
Mannboro1020241968
Rural Retrt1020241982
Star Tannery820241977
Jerome820231971
Ringgold820241976
Dryden820241991
Glenwood820231992
Shipman720241969
Saltville720241969
Irisburg720241976
Appomattox720241995
Lake Anna720242021
Taylorstown620101967
Edinburg620241968
David620131968
Big Island620241968

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.