BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Virginia has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.3 (95% range 2.4–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.3 (95% range 2.4–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.32.46.2
20274.32.46.2
20284.32.46.2
20294.32.46.2
20304.32.46.2

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Natural Brid1720251974
Covesville1520251967
Blacksburg1420251988
Partlow1320151977
Isom1120241969
Covington1020251966
Tryme920251975
Amherst920251967
Big Island920251968
Ringgold920251976
Nat Tunnel920251981
Church Road820251966
Glenwood820231992
Star Tannery720251977
Appomattox720241995
Rural Retrt720251982
Taylorstown620101967
W Augusta620251967
David620131968
Fincastle620251967
Saltville620251969
Gladys620251994
Carters Brdg 2620252015
Stanley520251966
Edinburg520251968

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.