BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Maine

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Maine has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Maine: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Maine is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 9.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 4.6–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Maine is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 9.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 4.6–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.14.49.9
20267.24.510.0
20277.34.510
20287.34.610
20297.44.610

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hermon3320191966
Brooks2120191977
Bowdoin Ctr2020211971
Jefferson1920101991
Benton1719801971
Cornville1620242012
Manchester1519951971
Charleston1520191975
Turner1420101972
Otisfield Gr1420151966
Westbrook1320241977
Reeds1320241983
Warren1319901973
Harmony1320241967
Rome1320241996
Greenwood1220241966
Searsport1220242002
Newcastle1120241971
Brownfield1120092009
Turner 21120242011
East Troy1020191973
Eastbrook1020241971
Castine1020061976
Baker Lake1020051994
Brownfield 21020242010

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.