BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Mississippi has surged: up 544% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+544%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Mississippi: up 544% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Mississippi is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.98–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.98–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Mississippi is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.98–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.842.7
20271.80.872.7
20281.80.912.8
20291.90.942.8
20301.90.982.8

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Delta N.F.1120162008
Duck Hill820251993
Trace Choctaw820192012
Corinth720251972
Trace Lee720182013
Trace Central520222015
Trace Attala520192016
Embry520251994
Okatibbee L.420081995
Olive Branch420011970
Forest420252007
Duffee420081978
Trace North420182008
Trace Chickasaw420252012
Benton320252002
Cybur319861986
Tupelo320221983
Macon320251967
Trace South320192017
Water Valley320182015
Holly Springs320242009
Lake Como220192012
Fayette220071967
Cockrum220241967
Lake220252007

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.