BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Ohio has increased: up 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Ohio is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.6–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Ohio is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.6–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.44.9
20273.72.54.9
20283.72.55.0
20293.82.55.0
20303.82.65.0

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ash Ridge1220211992
Tick Ridge1120191993
Middlefield1020171967
Rome1020251966
Smithfield820251966
Hebron820251966
Tar Hollow820241992
Shawnee S.F. 2820192001
Garrettsvile719911966
Lattasburg720251975
Coal Run719921966
Wayne N.F.720251992
Mohican S.F.720251992
Wayland620171992
Kenton620131980
New Dover620171968
Omega620241966
Scioto Furn620221992
Keene620231992
Lucerne520251992
Newcomerstwn519951966
West Elkton520121992
Birmingham520241988
Baxter Ridge420251998
Ray420251992

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.