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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Massachusetts has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Massachusetts: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.0 (95% range 5.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.0 (95% range 5.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.85.210
20277.95.210
20287.95.311
20298.05.311
20308.05.411

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Belchertown1520251967
S Barre1520251968
N Orange1520251968
Chesterfield1520251967
Maynard1320251967
Warren1320091968
Holden1220251977
Cummington1020141968
Brockton920191967
E Pepperell819941966
Cummington 2820252015
Princeton719761969
Monterey720252019
Hancock720151998
Newburyport620221967
Wellfleet520071966
N Oxford520251968
Pittsfield520161967
Ware River520221993
E Dennis420211969
Marion420251966
Warren 2420252010
Prattville320191966
Littleton320241967
Mansfield320251968

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.