BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Massachusetts has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+99%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Massachusetts: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 9.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 5.3–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 9.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 5.3–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.85.110
20267.85.210
20277.95.211
20287.95.311
20298.05.311

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chesterfield2220241967
S Barre2120241968
Belchertown1320241967
Warren1320091968
N Orange1320241968
Warren 21220242010
Marion1120241966
Holden1120241977
Cummington 21120242015
Cummington1020141968
Monterey1020242019
Brockton920191967
E Pepperell819941966
Princeton719761969
N. Andover720241995
Hancock720151998
Newburyport620221967
N Oxford620241968
Wellfleet520071966
Mansfield520241968
Pittsfield520161967
Ware River520221993
E Dennis420211969
Maynard420221967
Wellfleet 2420242016

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.