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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Oklahoma has surged: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+108%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Oklahoma: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.4–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.4–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.73.26.1
20274.73.36.2
20284.83.36.2
20294.83.46.3
20304.93.46.3

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ardmore2020251968
Sandbluff1620251992
Phillips1420251968
Holdenville1420251967
Matoy1320251992
Noble1120251967
Heyburn1120251992
Mcalester1019911967
Mill Creek1020251968
Beggs1020231967
Verden1020171967
Canadian920171967
Indianola920251967
Cashion920241992
Choctaw820231967
Wichita Mtns819941994
Cookietown720061970
Erick720241987
Ouachita Nf620251991
Wainwright620131992
Jet620241992
Ft Sill West619941994
Ft Sill East619941994
Big Cedar520241967
Grimes520251982

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.