BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Oklahoma has surged: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+75%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has risen sharply in Oklahoma: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.3–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.3–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.53.15.9
20264.63.16.0
20274.63.26.0
20284.63.26.1
20294.73.36.1

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Noble1920241967
Indianola1720241967
Mcalester1019911967
Beggs1020231967
Verden1020171967
Heyburn1020241992
Canadian920171967
Holdenville920241967
Cashion920241992
Phillips820081968
Choctaw820231967
Wichita Mtns819941994
Cookietown720061970
Erick720241987
Grimes620241982
Sandbluff619951992
Wainwright620131992
Jet620241992
Ft Sill West619941994
Ft Sill East619941994
Big Cedar520241967
Peoria520231967
Bartlesville520241967
Colony519951995
Matoy520001992

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.