BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe

TyrannidaeAerial insectivoresSayornis phoebe

Eastern Phoebe has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2,334RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Eastern Phoebe

A plain, tail-wagging flycatcher that often nests on bridges and buildings, the Eastern Phoebe is one of the earliest spring migrants to return north.

Size
5.5–6.5 in long, about 0.7 oz (14–17 cm, 20 g)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying and ground insects, with some berries in cold weather.
Range
Recorded on 2,334 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 41 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Tyrannidae · Aerial insectivores
Conservation
Least Concern

Notable Eastern Phoebe TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.72.8
20262.31.72.8
20272.31.72.8
20282.31.72.8
20292.31.72.8

Where the Eastern Phoebe Is Detected

BBS routes recording Eastern Phoebe, sized by most recent count.

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend by State

Eastern Phoebe population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+464%196894
Arkansas+57%196958
Colorado-9%20046
Connecticut+16%196820
Delaware-61%196817
Floridainsufficient datan/a3
Georgia12×196888
Illinois+378%1968105
Indiana+128%196866
Iowa-44%196938
Kansas+138%196957
Kentucky+28%196864
Louisiana+246%197422
Maine+101%196873
Maryland+82%196876
Massachusetts+99%196832
Michigan+3%1968104
Minnesota-1%196989
Mississippi+432%197046
Missouri+136%196994
Montanainsufficient datan/a1
Nebraska+202%196950
New Hampshire+30%196826
New Jersey+186%196839
New Mexico+39%20016
New York+17%1968128
North Carolina+119%196887
North Dakota+78%197122
Ohio+29%196887
Oklahoma+75%196966
Pennsylvania+36%1968136
Rhode Island+68%19685
South Carolina+562%196837
South Dakota-14%196920
Tennessee+92%196855
Texas+89%1969142
Vermont-16%196826
Virginia+52%196886
West Virginia+5%196863
Wisconsin+1%196898
Wyominginsufficient datan/a2

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Eastern Phoebe population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes+15%196970
Boreal Hardwood Transition-0%1968123
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+30%196886
Atlantic Northern Forest+23%1968151
Badlands and Prairies-57%196918
Shortgrass Prairie+23%198319
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+217%1969110
Edwards Plateau-39%196920
Oaks and Prairies+121%196970
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+163%1968272
Prairie Hardwood Transition+5%1968159
Central Hardwoods+69%1968166
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-2%196982
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+26%196836
Southeastern Coastal Plain+696%1968196
Appalachian Mountains+34%1968405
Piedmont+170%1968170
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+53%1968156
Tamaulipan Brushlands+42%19769
Gulf Coastal Prairie-74%19769

Eastern Phoebe Conservation Status

Least Concern

The IUCN Red List rates this species as Least Concern. Our route-weighted index has held roughly steady since 1968. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.