BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+45%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.05–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±244.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±244.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.05–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±244.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.040.43
20270.240.050.43
20280.240.050.43
20290.240.050.43
20300.240.050.43

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA42003
ZearingIOWA31995
BadgerMINNESOTA32018
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA32012
TitonkaIOWA22014
MccallsburgIOWA22019
OkleeMINNESOTA22014
WylieMINNESOTA22024
FairmontMINNESOTA22025
LockhartMINNESOTA22017
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA22017
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22025
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA22019
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA22012
Bowesmont 2NORTH-DAKOTA22016
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
PantherIOWA12025
WashingtonIOWA12010
KanawhaIOWA12015
ScrantonIOWA12013
ClareIOWA12017
GarnerIOWA11974
HartlandMINNESOTA12007
HuntleyMINNESOTA12023
ArlingtonMINNESOTA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.