BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.74.7
20273.72.74.7
20283.72.74.7
20293.72.74.7
20303.72.74.7

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarrenCONNECTICUT172011
E HartlandCONNECTICUT151992
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS152025
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS152025
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE152025
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS132025
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS132009
GranbyCONNECTICUT122025
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS122025
Wallum LakeRHODE-ISLAND122025
WillimanticCONNECTICUT112018
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE111998
ShermanCONNECTICUT102019
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND102018
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS92019
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE92025
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE92025
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT82022
WoodstockCONNECTICUT82007
Warren 2CONNECTICUT82025
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS81994
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT72025
Long HillCONNECTICUT72019
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT72025
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS71976

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.