BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.8 (95% range 2.7–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.8 (95% range 2.7–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.72.74.7
20263.72.74.7
20273.72.74.7
20283.72.74.7
20293.82.74.8

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS212024
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE192023
WarrenCONNECTICUT172011
E HartlandCONNECTICUT151992
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND152024
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT132024
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS132024
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS132009
Warren 2MASSACHUSETTS122024
WillimanticCONNECTICUT112018
GranbyCONNECTICUT112024
MarionMASSACHUSETTS112024
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS112024
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE111998
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE112024
East KingstonNEW-HAMPSHIRE112024
ShermanCONNECTICUT102019
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND102024
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND102018
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT92024
Warren 2CONNECTICUT92024
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS92019
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE92024
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT82022
WoodstockCONNECTICUT82007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.