BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Boreal Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: down 0% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-0%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.34.5
20262.91.34.5
20272.91.34.5
20282.91.34.5
20292.91.34.5

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WausaukeeWISCONSIN122024
PickfordMICHIGAN112024
BagleyMINNESOTA102006
CathroMICHIGAN92016
Pine RiverMINNESOTA92024
BrainerdMINNESOTA92024
OntonagonMICHIGAN82019
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN72024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN72024
HerronMICHIGAN72013
DebsMINNESOTA72024
Union TwpWISCONSIN72024
Maple GroveMICHIGAN62024
Brush CreekMICHIGAN62016
Little ForkMINNESOTA62024
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN52004
MayfieldMICHIGAN52022
Grand ViewWISCONSIN52024
GilmanWISCONSIN52024
AmbergWISCONSIN52024
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN52024
Ned LakeMICHIGAN42024
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN42024
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN41997
Red OakMICHIGAN42013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.