BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Boreal Hardwood Transition has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.9 (95% range 1.4–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.9 (95% range 1.4–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.34.5
20272.91.34.5
20282.91.34.5
20292.91.44.5
20302.91.44.5

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN112025
BagleyMINNESOTA102006
WausaukeeWISCONSIN102025
IshpemingMICHIGAN92025
CathroMICHIGAN92016
DebsMINNESOTA92025
BrainerdMINNESOTA92024
Union TwpWISCONSIN92025
BashawWISCONSIN92025
OntonagonMICHIGAN82019
PickfordMICHIGAN82025
Iron RiverWISCONSIN82025
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN82025
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN72024
HerronMICHIGAN72013
NebishMINNESOTA72025
PhillipsWISCONSIN72025
Ned LakeMICHIGAN62025
Maple GroveMICHIGAN62025
Brush CreekMICHIGAN62016
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN62025
BackusMINNESOTA62025
Pine RiverMINNESOTA62025
Little ForkMINNESOTA62024
ChaffeyWISCONSIN62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.