BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 217% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+217%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 217% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Phoebe In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.5–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.5–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.32.9
20262.11.42.9
20272.21.42.9
20282.21.43.0
20292.21.53.0

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WellingtonKANSAS102024
VerdenOKLAHOMA102017
DaltonKANSAS92024
CashionOKLAHOMA92024
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA81994
CookietownOKLAHOMA72006
ErickOKLAHOMA72024
Beloit 2KANSAS62018
BradyNEBRASKA62024
GrimesOKLAHOMA62024
JetOKLAHOMA62024
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA61994
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA61994
HanoverKANSAS52023
CovertKANSAS52024
BerwetKANSAS52024
LibertyNEBRASKA52003
SicklesOKLAHOMA52021
HunterOKLAHOMA52018
ColonyOKLAHOMA51995
BuckeyeKANSAS42023
DouglasOKLAHOMA42022
WakitaOKLAHOMA42015
SilverTEXAS42024
Beaver CreekTEXAS42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.