BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.55–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+97%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.55–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.55–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.501.5
20261.00.511.6
20271.00.521.6
20281.10.541.6
20291.10.551.6

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI112016
SaffellARKANSAS92019
MaynardARKANSAS42024
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI42024
Augusta 2ARKANSAS32016
AugustaARKANSAS22000
WilsonARKANSAS22023
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY22024
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI22024
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI22016
DeventerMISSOURI22023
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE22023
PawpawTENNESSEE22012
EudoraARKANSAS12014
HughesARKANSAS12011
West TylerARKANSAS11970
South BendARKANSAS11993
HarrisburgARKANSAS12019
WhittonARKANSAS11968
LafeARKANSAS12017
EnglandARKANSAS12024
GillettARKANSAS12024
UlmARKANSAS12014
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12024
BardwellKENTUCKY12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.