BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 696% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+696%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
196Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 696% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.6–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.6–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.81.52.1
20261.91.62.2
20271.91.62.2
20281.91.62.2
20292.01.62.3

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GreensboroALABAMA222024
Big SandyTENNESSEE172024
MansfieldTENNESSEE162024
CottontonALABAMA152024
RiderwoodALABAMA142023
BloctonALABAMA142024
HumboldtTENNESSEE132024
SpragueALABAMA122024
CalebeeALABAMA122024
HowardALABAMA112024
LibertyALABAMA112022
BillingsleyALABAMA112022
Warrior StdALABAMA102024
LakeviewGEORGIA102024
SilertonTENNESSEE102024
St FlorianALABAMA92024
BrantleyALABAMA92024
HoltALABAMA92024
SealeALABAMA92017
HendersonGEORGIA92024
ElamvilleALABAMA82024
Defuniak SprFLORIDA82006
Trace ChoctawMISSISSIPPI82019
BrundidgeALABAMA72021
DeepstepGEORGIA72023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.