BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 741% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+741%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
196Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 741% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.7–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.7–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.62.2
20271.91.62.3
20282.01.62.3
20292.01.72.3
20302.01.72.4

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TazewellGEORGIA192025
WedgeworthALABAMA162025
HumboldtTENNESSEE162025
RiderwoodALABAMA142023
SpragueALABAMA132025
BloctonALABAMA132025
ElamvilleALABAMA132025
GreensboroALABAMA122025
WallsboroALABAMA122025
JenaALABAMA122025
LibertyALABAMA112022
CottontonALABAMA112025
CarrolltonALABAMA112025
Big SandyTENNESSEE112025
AutaugavilleALABAMA102025
SilertonTENNESSEE102024
Warrior StdALABAMA92025
CalebeeALABAMA92025
SealeALABAMA92017
MansfieldTENNESSEE92025
WhitehallALABAMA82025
Defuniak SprFLORIDA82006
HendersonGEORGIA82025
MaconGEORGIA82025
ShilohKENTUCKY82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.