BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.4–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+95%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±145%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.4–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.34.4
20262.91.34.5
20272.91.34.5
20282.91.34.5
20293.01.44.5

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HatfieldWISCONSIN151998
BravoMICHIGAN102023
AlmenaMICHIGAN102015
CohoctahMICHIGAN62024
St StephenMINNESOTA62016
WhitewaterMINNESOTA62000
HolwayWISCONSIN61989
GilmantonWISCONSIN62024
ParisWISCONSIN62024
New BuffaloMICHIGAN52014
Brook ParkMINNESOTA52024
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA52024
CumberlandWISCONSIN52024
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN52024
MatherWISCONSIN52023
OmroWISCONSIN52001
PrincetonWISCONSIN52017
MukwonagoWISCONSIN52004
FowlervilleMICHIGAN42019
WaldenburgMICHIGAN42016
HudsonWISCONSIN42024
EsdaileWISCONSIN42024
CadottWISCONSIN42024
N FreedomWISCONSIN42024
GreshamWISCONSIN42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.