BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±132.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.24.4
20272.81.34.4
20282.91.34.4
20292.91.34.5
20302.91.34.5

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HatfieldWISCONSIN151998
BravoMICHIGAN102023
AlmenaMICHIGAN102015
Brook ParkMINNESOTA92025
LoraineWISCONSIN82025
GilmantonWISCONSIN82025
GreshamWISCONSIN72025
ScottvilleMICHIGAN62025
WhitewaterMINNESOTA62000
HolwayWISCONSIN61989
CadottWISCONSIN62025
N AndoverWISCONSIN62025
KnoxINDIANA52025
New BuffaloMICHIGAN52014
CumberlandWISCONSIN52025
MatherWISCONSIN52023
OmroWISCONSIN52001
PrincetonWISCONSIN52017
EdenWISCONSIN52025
BeloitWISCONSIN52025
MukwonagoWISCONSIN52004
NashvilleMICHIGAN42025
HoltMICHIGAN42025
FowlervilleMICHIGAN42019
WaldenburgMICHIGAN42016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.