BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.2 (95% range 3.5–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.2 (95% range 3.5–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.13.46.8
20265.13.46.8
20275.23.56.8
20285.23.56.9
20295.23.56.9

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK172024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA132023
CatskillsNEW-YORK122015
DuanesburgNEW-YORK122024
North EastonNEW-YORK122024
ShaftsburyVERMONT122024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK112024
N Victory 2NEW-YORK112021
MiddlefieldOHIO102017
RhinebeckNEW-YORK92024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK91995
ClintonNEW-YORK92013
ParishvilleNEW-YORK92024
West BangorNEW-YORK81999
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA82024
GhentNEW-YORK72024
Canadice LNEW-YORK72024
Cherry HillNEW-YORK72019
SalemNEW-YORK72024
WillsboroNEW-YORK72024
GarrettsvileOHIO71991
HiramOHIO72021
HinesburgVERMONT71994
W ShokanNEW-YORK62019
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.