BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.2 (95% range 3.6–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.2 (95% range 3.6–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.13.56.8
20275.23.56.8
20285.23.56.9
20295.23.56.9
20305.23.66.9

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK242025
CatskillsNEW-YORK122015
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK122025
N Victory 2NEW-YORK112021
NaplesNEW-YORK112025
PenfieldNEW-YORK102025
ParishvilleNEW-YORK102025
MiddlefieldOHIO102017
RhinebeckNEW-YORK92025
Ballston LkNEW-YORK91995
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK92025
ClintonNEW-YORK92013
BristolVERMONT92025
Canadice LNEW-YORK82025
OgdensburgNEW-YORK82025
West BangorNEW-YORK81999
HebronOHIO82025
North PownalVERMONT82025
GhentNEW-YORK72025
DuanesburgNEW-YORK72025
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK72025
Cherry HillNEW-YORK72019
PulaskiNEW-YORK72025
WillsboroNEW-YORK72024
GarrettsvileOHIO71991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.