BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-26%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.09
20270.040.000.09
20280.040.000.09
20290.040.000.09
20300.040.000.09

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA32024
BethuneCOLORADO12004
TrincheraCOLORADO12022
NinaviewCOLORADO12010
PritchettCOLORADO12008
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO12022
WinonaKANSAS12006
PaxtonNEBRASKA12014
DaltonNEBRASKA12025
CrawfordNEBRASKA12012
FarleyNEW-MEXICO12013
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO12021
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO12005
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12013
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO12021
LoganNEW-MEXICO12023
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA12025
PostTEXAS11983
FloydadaTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.