BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Tamaulipan Brushlands has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+72%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has risen sharply in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Eastern Phoebe In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.02–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.02–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.020.21
20270.120.020.21
20280.120.020.21
20290.120.020.21
20300.120.020.21

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HondoTEXAS22025
Agua NuevaTEXAS11997
KingsvilleTEXAS11969
EncinalTEXAS11980
CatarinaTEXAS12002
La PryorTEXAS12005
El IndioTEXAS11971
RaymondvilleTEXAS11978
SejitaTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.