BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Tamaulipan Brushlands has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+42%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.01–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.01–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.010.20
20260.110.010.20
20270.110.010.20
20280.110.010.20
20290.110.010.20

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HondoTEXAS22024
Agua NuevaTEXAS11997
KingsvilleTEXAS11969
EncinalTEXAS11980
CatarinaTEXAS12002
La PryorTEXAS12005
El IndioTEXAS11971
RaymondvilleTEXAS11978
SejitaTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.