BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Piedmont has surged: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+159%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
170Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Piedmont: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Piedmont is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 5.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 5.4–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Piedmont is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 5.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 5.4–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.45.17.8
20276.55.27.8
20286.65.27.9
20296.65.38.0
20306.75.48.1

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CandlerGEORGIA202025
MaxeysGEORGIA192024
WedoweeALABAMA182023
Kite LakeGEORGIA182025
Stoney PointGEORGIA162007
Owings 2SOUTH-CAROLINA162025
LincolntonGEORGIA152017
CovesvilleVIRGINIA152025
StockbridgeGEORGIA132025
PartlowVIRGINIA132015
MillervilleALABAMA122025
Stoney Point 2GEORGIA122025
AthensGEORGIA112025
HebronGEORGIA112022
WilgroveNORTH-CAROLINA112025
GrovetownGEORGIA102021
Hollonville 2GEORGIA102022
WhitesburgGEORGIA102025
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA102025
Good HopeGEORGIA102025
WoodstockGEORGIA102021
Hulls XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA102023
MetasvilleGEORGIA92000
SaxapahawNORTH-CAROLINA92023
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.