BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Piedmont has surged: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+170%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
170Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Piedmont: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.7 (95% range 5.4–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.7 (95% range 5.4–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.45.17.7
20266.55.27.8
20276.65.27.9
20286.65.38.0
20296.75.48.0

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FlayNORTH-CAROLINA252024
Stoney Point 2GEORGIA212024
MaxeysGEORGIA192024
WedoweeALABAMA182023
Kite LakeGEORGIA172023
Stoney PointGEORGIA162007
SheffieldNORTH-CAROLINA162024
LincolntonGEORGIA152017
MonticelloNORTH-CAROLINA152024
Mount AiryNORTH-CAROLINA152024
OstwaltNORTH-CAROLINA152024
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA142024
Yates CrossroadsGEORGIA142024
StockbridgeGEORGIA132023
CopelandNORTH-CAROLINA132024
PartlowVIRGINIA132015
MoranVIRGINIA132024
MillervilleALABAMA122024
Nixburg 2ALABAMA122024
Mooresville 2NORTH-CAROLINA122024
EdenNORTH-CAROLINA122024
AmherstVIRGINIA122024
Carters Brdg 2VIRGINIA122024
CandlerGEORGIA112024
Rock BranchGEORGIA112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.