BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Phoebe In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.020.000.07
20200.020.000.07
20210.020.000.07
20220.020.000.07
20230.020.000.07

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA52012
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA21976
CrookstonNEBRASKA12018
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA12017
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA11974
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA12017
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA11969
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA11991
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA11968
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA12009
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA11980
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA11985
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA11994
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA12001
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA12018
SundanceWYOMING12010
ArvadaWYOMING11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.