BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Missouri has surged: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+136%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Missouri: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Missouri is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 5.2–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Missouri is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 5.2–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.04.99.1
20267.15.09.2
20277.25.09.3
20287.25.19.3
20297.35.29.4

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cascade2420241967
Syracuse2320241969
Gerald2020242013
Osage Beach1620241997
Mincy1620242013
West Plains1620242014
Moselle1320242000
Filley1220241975
Whitewater1120241996
Doe Run1120242015
Clementine1020021974
Emden1020242017
House Springs1020242017
Viburnum1020242014
Union1019991990
Peace Valley920241975
Centertown920241975
Sni Mills919901967
Barks920241994
Cassville820241967
Millwood820241999
Woodlandville820242013
Sweden720241968
Danville720241967
Ohio720241972

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.