BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Missouri has surged: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+142%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Missouri: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Missouri is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 5.1–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Missouri is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 5.1–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.94.89.1
20277.04.89.2
20287.14.99.2
20297.15.09.3
20307.25.19.4

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cascade2620251967
Syracuse2320241969
Gerald1720252013
House Springs1320252017
Moselle1320252000
Osage Beach1220251997
Mincy1120252013
Clementine1020021974
Kingsville1020251992
Emden1020242017
Eugene1020252013
Viburnum1020242014
Union1019991990
Sni Mills919901967
Rockingham820251969
Barks820251994
Kearney820251994
Mcfall820251994
Lincoln820252013
Centertown720251975
Frazier720241967
Trenton720251967
Bland720251995
Gildehouse719891978
Kahoka2720242003

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.