BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in New Jersey has surged: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+186%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in New Jersey: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in New Jersey is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in New Jersey is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.74.3
20263.11.84.4
20273.11.84.4
20283.11.84.4
20293.11.84.4

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ramseysburg1020241995
Dover920231977
Hope719941970
Toms River620241967
Bennett Mill520001967
Kemah Lake520241966
Croton 2520242008
High Point420241977
Friendship420241977
Sandbrook320241970
Clarksville319911969
Croton320071970
Gillette320241988
Roosevelt320221986
Estell Manor320222021
Holmansville220041969
Bloomsbury220241969
Pottersville220231986
Pomona220241978
Pedricktown 2220242015
Cape May Ch220112009
Winslow220241989
Bennett Mill 2220232016
Woodbury Hgt120241968
Greenwich120231967

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.