BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in New Jersey has surged: up 193% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+193%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in New Jersey: up 193% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in New Jersey is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in New Jersey is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.74.3
20273.01.74.3
20283.11.84.4
20293.11.84.4
20303.11.84.4

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dover920231977
Hope719941970
Ramseysburg720251995
Toms River620241967
Sandbrook620251970
Bennett Mill520001967
Kemah Lake520241966
Estell Manor420252021
Croton 2420252008
Clarksville319911969
Croton320071970
High Point320251977
Gillette320251988
Roosevelt320221986
Friendship320251977
Woodbury Hgt220251968
Six Points220251978
Holmansville220041969
Bloomsbury220251969
Pottersville220231986
Cape May Ch220112009
Greenwich120231967
Spraguetown 2120122000
Albion120111971
Ancora119721970

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.