BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Texas has surged: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+89%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
142Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Texas: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Texas is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.3–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±172%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Texas is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.3–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.01.22.9
20262.11.22.9
20272.11.32.9
20282.11.32.9
20292.11.33.0

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Miller Grove1720241970
Blue Ridge1720241988
Weatherford1320241968
Gambill Ref.1220241995
Mt. Selman1120241998
Morton1020241972
Thornton 21020101986
Bayside1019961996
Duran1019991995
Athens920241969
Liberty Hill920231973
Chandler 2920242005
Smyrna820101996
Massey Lake720241970
Glen Rose720231967
Cottonwood720241967
Olney720241969
Oak Grove 2720242003
Decatur720241995
Dallas620241975
Selden620241969
Dike620241973
Boerne520191967
Caledonia520241969
Pidcoke520171968

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.