BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Texas has surged: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+149%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Texas: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Texas is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.3–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±169.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±169.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Texas is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.3–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±169.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.22.9
20272.11.22.9
20282.11.32.9
20292.11.32.9
20302.11.33.0

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Miller Grove2220251970
Lydia1320251988
Liberty Hill1220251973
Cottonwood1020251967
Thornton 21020101986
Bayside1019961996
Duran1019991995
Cayuga920252001
Chandler 2920242005
Thornton 3920252018
Dike820251973
Smyrna820101996
Olney720241969
Hearne720251999
Blue Ridge720251988
Decatur720241995
Caledonia620251969
Weatherford620251968
Graford620251967
Oak Grove 2620252003
Mt. Selman620251998
Smyrna 2620252011
Massey Lake520251970
Pidcoke520171968
Adamsville520251971

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.