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Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Maryland

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Maryland has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has risen sharply in Maryland: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Maryland is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Maryland is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.82.03.6
20272.92.13.7
20282.92.13.7
20292.92.13.7
20302.92.13.7

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oldtown1020251970
Earlton820242015
Floyd720251966
Jennings720251995
Green Ridge720251995
La Plata620091966
Emmitsburg520251966
Olney520251966
Pt Republic519891966
Ijamsville520251986
Davidsnville520251985
Smithsburg420141967
Piney Grove420251995
Forest Grove420232012
Nottingham420252005
Potomac Park320251970
Williamsport320251967
Silver Spg319891967
Warfieldsbrg320241966
Tall Timbers320141966
Vienna320241966
Furnace Town320232016
Accident 2320252018
Mt Nebo219911969
Wolfsville220251966

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.