BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Maryland

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Maryland has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Maryland: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.92.13.7
20262.92.13.7
20272.92.13.7
20282.92.13.7
20292.92.13.8

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jennings1320241995
Oldtown1120241970
Finzel820241995
Earlton820242015
Floyd720241966
Olney720241966
Green Ridge720241995
Accident 2720242018
Ijamsville720241986
La Plata620091966
Potomac Park520241970
Williamsport520241967
Emmitsburg520241966
Pt Republic519891966
Pomonkey520241966
Smithsburg420141967
Pleasant Val420241966
Forest Grove420232012
Wolfsville320241966
Silver Spg319891967
Warfieldsbrg320241966
Tall Timbers320141966
Hughesville320241967
Millington320241966
Vienna320241966

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.