BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Indiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Indiana has surged: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+163%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Indiana: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Indiana is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.3–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Indiana is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.3–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.32.8
20272.11.32.8
20282.11.32.8
20292.11.32.9
20302.11.32.9

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sexton920231983
Celestine720251980
Wabash620251981
Clear Spring620251981
Knox520251989
Monticello520251995
Washington520252012
Brookville420251969
Indian Spgs420251982
New Phila420251982
New Castle420242016
Georgia420251999
Kokomo420242001
Kewanna320191981
Brazil320251966
Jamestown320251987
Spencer320241970
Azalia320251982
Cumback320251966
Scottsburg320251982
Wallace320241999
Cyprss320251999
Packertown219921970
W Lafayette220241989
Swayzee220211991

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.