BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.0–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.0–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.94.1
20263.01.94.2
20273.11.94.2
20283.11.94.2
20293.12.04.2

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IndianolaOKLAHOMA172024
BlakelyARKANSAS151999
Mt. SelmanTEXAS112024
McalesterOKLAHOMA101991
MortonTEXAS102024
LockesburgARKANSAS92019
CanadianOKLAHOMA92017
AthensTEXAS92024
Liberty HillTEXAS92023
Chandler 2TEXAS92024
NanceARKANSAS82024
PhillipsOKLAHOMA82008
SmyrnaTEXAS82010
LongstreetLOUISIANA72024
HavanaARKANSAS62021
SandbluffOKLAHOMA61995
Locust BayouARKANSAS52023
PoyenARKANSAS52007
Ivan 2LOUISIANA52016
Big CedarOKLAHOMA52024
MatoyOKLAHOMA52000
CaledoniaTEXAS52024
ChandlerTEXAS52004
WechesTEXAS52024
HopeARKANSAS42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.