BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 2.0–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 2.0–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.94.2
20273.01.94.2
20283.11.94.2
20293.12.04.2
20303.12.04.3

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SandbluffOKLAHOMA162025
BlakelyARKANSAS151999
PhillipsOKLAHOMA142025
MatoyOKLAHOMA132025
Liberty HillTEXAS122025
McalesterOKLAHOMA101991
LockesburgARKANSAS92019
CanadianOKLAHOMA92017
IndianolaOKLAHOMA92025
Chandler 2TEXAS92024
NanceARKANSAS82025
SmyrnaTEXAS82010
StarkARKANSAS72025
HavanaARKANSAS62021
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA62025
CaledoniaTEXAS62025
Mt. SelmanTEXAS62025
Smyrna 2TEXAS62025
Locust BayouARKANSAS52023
PoyenARKANSAS52007
Big CedarOKLAHOMA52024
ChandlerTEXAS52004
HollywoodARKANSAS42024
BlancoOKLAHOMA42016
DibollTEXAS42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.