BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Appalachian Mountains has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
405Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.6 (95% range 4.8–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.6 (95% range 4.8–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.54.78.2
20266.54.78.3
20276.54.88.3
20286.64.88.3
20296.64.88.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WelchWEST-VIRGINIA272023
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA262024
Mt OliveALABAMA242024
Natural BridVIRGINIA242024
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY221995
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA202024
GreensportALABAMA192024
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA192024
Corryton RdTENNESSEE192019
TalladegaALABAMA182024
CorbettsvileNEW-YORK182024
DenmarWEST-VIRGINIA182024
MedusaNEW-YORK172024
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA172021
Pine GroveALABAMA162024
Smyer LakeALABAMA162024
KehoeKENTUCKY161992
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA162024
Oliver SpgsTENNESSEE162022
HixWEST-VIRGINIA162024
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY151997
RydePENNSYLVANIA152005
Ltl Pine CrPENNSYLVANIA152024
RioWEST-VIRGINIA151995
Pleasant HillGEORGIA142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.