BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 4.4–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 4.4–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.74.27.2
20275.74.37.2
20285.84.37.3
20295.84.47.3
20305.94.47.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CascadeMISSOURI262025
SyracuseMISSOURI232024
SwaimALABAMA172025
FarwellARKANSAS162018
Osage BeachMISSOURI122025
Carter GroveALABAMA112023
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS112023
MincyMISSOURI112025
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE112019
JoyKENTUCKY102023
ClementineMISSOURI102002
EugeneMISSOURI102025
ViburnumMISSOURI102024
RomeOHIO102025
ZionARKANSAS92025
CentertonARKANSAS92025
YorkILLINOIS92025
Bays ForkKENTUCKY92019
DixonKENTUCKY92024
Pond CreekTENNESSEE92025
Union HillTENNESSEE92024
Levee 2KENTUCKY82019
BarksMISSOURI82025
LincolnMISSOURI82025
AvocaARKANSAS72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.