BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Central Hardwoods has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has risen sharply in Central Hardwoods: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 4.5–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 4.5–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.84.37.2
20265.84.47.2
20275.94.47.3
20285.94.57.3
20296.04.57.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CascadeMISSOURI242024
SyracuseMISSOURI232024
SwaimALABAMA212024
FarwellARKANSAS162018
Osage BeachMISSOURI162024
MincyMISSOURI162024
West PlainsMISSOURI162024
ZionARKANSAS142024
Carter GroveALABAMA112023
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS112023
WhitewaterMISSOURI112024
Doe RunMISSOURI112024
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE112019
JoyKENTUCKY102023
ClementineMISSOURI102002
ViburnumMISSOURI102024
RoyaltonILLINOIS92024
HustonvilleKENTUCKY92024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY92019
DixonKENTUCKY92024
Peace ValleyMISSOURI92024
CentertownMISSOURI92024
BarksMISSOURI92024
Union HillTENNESSEE92024
BelknapILLINOIS82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.