BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+121%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Phoebe In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.5–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.5–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.13.27.1
20265.23.37.1
20275.33.47.2
20285.43.47.3
20295.43.57.4

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NobleOKLAHOMA192024
Miller GroveTEXAS172024
Blue RidgeTEXAS172024
WeatherfordTEXAS132024
Gambill Ref.TEXAS122024
BeggsOKLAHOMA102023
HeyburnOKLAHOMA102024
Thornton 2TEXAS102010
DuranTEXAS101999
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA92024
ChoctawOKLAHOMA82023
Massey LakeTEXAS72024
Glen RoseTEXAS72023
CottonwoodTEXAS72024
OlneyTEXAS72024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS72024
DecaturTEXAS72024
DallasTEXAS62024
SeldenTEXAS62024
DikeTEXAS62024
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA52024
DuncanOKLAHOMA52024
OlaTEXAS52024
HearneTEXAS52024
CayugaTEXAS52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.