BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Atlantic Northern Forest has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 4.3–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 4.3–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.04.29.9
20267.14.29.9
20277.14.210.0
20287.14.310.0
20297.24.310

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HermonMAINE332019
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS222024
BrooksMAINE212019
Bowdoin CtrMAINE202021
JeffersonMAINE192010
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE192024
BentonMAINE171980
CornvilleMAINE162024
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE162024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE162024
PetersburgNEW-YORK162018
ManchesterMAINE151995
CharlestonMAINE152019
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE152024
TurnerMAINE142010
Otisfield GrMAINE142015
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE142024
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK141975
WestbrookMAINE132024
ReedsMAINE132024
WarrenMAINE131990
HarmonyMAINE132024
RomeMAINE132024
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS132024
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.