BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Atlantic Northern Forest has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 8.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 4.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 8.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 4.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.24.310
20277.24.310
20287.34.410
20297.34.410
20307.34.410

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HermonMAINE282021
East TroyMAINE252021
GreenwoodMAINE202025
Bowdoin CtrMAINE202021
JeffersonMAINE192010
BentonMAINE171980
Brownfield 2MAINE172025
PetersburgNEW-YORK162018
East HavenVERMONT162025
ManchesterMAINE151995
BrooksMAINE152021
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS152025
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS152025
GaysvilleVERMONT152025
TurnerMAINE142010
Otisfield GrMAINE142015
SearsportMAINE142025
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK141975
WestbrookMAINE132024
WarrenMAINE131990
RomeMAINE132024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE132025
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE132025
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE132025
StrattonVERMONT132025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.