BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Louisiana has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Louisiana is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 2.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Louisiana is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 2.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.42.612
20267.42.612
20277.42.612
20287.42.612
20297.42.612

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Baton Rouge4420241995
Natchitoches3419911987
Easton3119901967
Carlisle2519881968
Lafitte2519911967
Slidell1919881984
Lacombe1819831967
Many1819921989
Keystone1720131967
River Road1720241987
Oakdale1619941991
Ville Platte1520191989
Cypress1319871967
Pine Prairie1319971995
Esther1220241988
Mayflower1120241967
Fort Polk1119751967
De Quincy1120211998
Brousville1020241998
Greensburg920221988
Port Allen820242000
Carterville719921992
Gonzales720191998
Cheniere720241984
Pearl River720241989

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.