BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Louisiana has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Louisiana is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 2.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Louisiana is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 2.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.22.512
20277.22.412
20287.22.412
20297.22.412
20307.22.412

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Natchitoches3419911987
Easton3119901967
Carlisle2519881968
Lafitte2519911967
Baton Rouge2520251995
Ramah2220251989
Slidell1919881984
Lacombe1819831967
Many1819921989
Keystone1720131967
Oakdale1619941991
Ville Platte1520191989
Cypress1319871967
Pine Prairie1319971995
Fort Polk1119751967
De Quincy1120211998
Kraemer1120251997
Roseland920251967
Greensburg920221988
Brousville920251998
Pearl River920251989
Franklinton920252008
Womack820251999
Belair820251991
Fishville 2820252018

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.