BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chimney Swift Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in New York has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in New York. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in New York is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.1–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in New York is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.1–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.33.1
20272.21.23.1
20282.11.23.0
20292.11.23.0
20302.11.13.0

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Chimney Swift in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Macdougall2520251969
Dryden2120251967
Branchport2120241969
Durham1319761966
Manorville1020221966
Hamburg1020251967
Huntington920231967
Highland920221968
North Easton920251967
Coventryvile820231967
Oneonta820251968
Westhampton720241968
Ballston Lk719951967
Oxford719761967
Number Four719871967
Laurens620251969
Whitney Pt620221966
Penfield620251971
Alder Creek620041974
Wanakena620251980
Dexter Lake619751975
Orange Lake619911987
Somers519771970
Middletown520111967
Cobleskill520231966

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.