BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in New York has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in New York. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in New York is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.1–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in New York is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.1–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.33.1
20262.11.23.1
20272.11.23.0
20282.11.23.0
20292.01.13.0

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Chimney Swift in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Branchport2120241969
Durham1319761966
Penfield1220241971
Parishville1220241972
Macdougall1120241969
Manorville1020221966
Huntington920231967
Highland920221968
Coventryvile820231967
Oneonta820241968
Hamburg820241967
Wanakena820241980
Westhampton720241968
Ballston Lk719951967
Oxford719761967
Number Four719871967
Whitney Pt620221966
Alder Creek620041974
Dexter Lake619751975
Orange Lake619911987
Somers519771970
Middletown520111967
Cobleskill520231966
Platte Cove520161968
Dryden520241967

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.