BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Nebraska is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Nebraska is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.970.003.0
20260.900.002.9
20270.830.002.8
20280.770.002.7
20290.700.002.7

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Liberty 24020072004
Almeria1520211970
Bartley1120241967
Liberty1020031967
Mullen1020172014
Julian920241969
Seward820241967
Tilden820232019
Irvington720241967
Stratton620241975
Richland620241968
Midway620231978
Crookston620232021
Madison520182018
Belvidere420241968
Arthur420241985
Berwyn419971997
Gretna320141967
Surprise320191967
Paxton320161979
Eagle Creek320241976
Benkelman320171989
Murray Lake320082003
Sargent320242022
Johnson220131968

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.