BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Arkansas is projected to rise about 230% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.43–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±178%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+230%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±178%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Arkansas is projected to rise about 230% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.43–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±178%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.90.757.0
20263.80.676.9
20273.70.596.8
20283.60.516.7
20293.50.436.6

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell9320182010
Whitton1819911969
Massard1320221967
Blakely1119991968
England1020242010
Ravenden Springs920152011
Compton820221967
Crows719911967
Poyen720071967
Springhill720222010
Magazine Mtn720191993
Stark620091967
Dell620102010
Lockesburg620182010
Stephens620182010
Eudora520101968
Saffell520191967
Zion520211967
Avoca520241967
Princeton520141999
Wilson520241993
Locust Bayou420231967
Coal Hill420231968
Ulm420231989
Dry Fork420232000

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.