BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Arkansas has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has collapsed in Arkansas: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Arkansas is projected to rise about 81% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.18–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±177.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Arkansas is projected to rise about 81% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.18–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.60.516.8
20273.50.436.7
20283.50.346.6
20293.40.266.5
20303.30.186.4

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell9320182010
England2220252010
Whitton1819911969
Massard1320221967
Blakely1119991968
Ravenden Springs920152011
Compton820221967
Crows719911967
Poyen720071967
Springhill720222010
Dell620102010
Lockesburg620182010
Eudora520101968
Saffell520191967
Maynard520251967
Zion520211967
Avoca520241967
Stephens520252010
Magazine Mtn520251993
Princeton520141999
Locust Bayou420231967
Coal Hill420231968
Ulm420231989
Nance420251992
Dry Fork420232000

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.