BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Kentucky has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-84%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has collapsed in Kentucky: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Kentucky is projected to fall about 80% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-80%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Kentucky is projected to fall about 80% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.009.3
20272.00.008.9
20281.60.008.5
20291.10.008.1
20300.720.007.6

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Million5019861966
Levee3019821966
Daniel Boone2619881966
Staffordsvil2619971996
Goshen2419991966
Boxville1919831966
Buena Vista1920171966
Beattyville1820011966
Glencoe1720181966
Iron Bridge1619981966
Phelps1419971979
Dixon1220222005
Dixie1220191968
Porter1120251966
Levee 21020192007
Sunnybrook920221968
Hodgenville920031967
Sewell Shop920251966
Paintsville819951979
Million 2820232006
Cumberlnd Gp720181966
Gatewood720191966
Gesling719731968
Carter720231976
Lebanon Junction720252000

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.