BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Minnesota is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Minnesota is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.001.3
20260.530.001.2
20270.500.001.2
20280.470.001.2
20290.430.001.1

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Courtland1220241978
Caledonia 2920212018
Osseo720241967
Whitewater720001995
New London620181994
Ash Creek520241975
Minnetonka520241969
Arlington520221967
St Stephen520081967
Cass Lake520121981
Brook Park520212004
Knapp420241967
Badger420152015
Chatfield 2420232003
Money Creek320241967
Chandler320231971
Lakeville320111968
Wigwam Bay320181968
Edwards320241973
Evergreen320241967
Bena319671967
Bemidji319681967
Debs320161969
Beltrami320071974
Chokio North320131993

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.