BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Oklahoma has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-89%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has collapsed in Oklahoma: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.001.6
20260.230.001.5
20270.150.001.5
20280.070.001.4
20290.000.001.3

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Verden2020041967
Goodwater1720211993
Mcalester1219911967
Barnsdall1119771967
Pushmataha820231994
Elgin719941994
Collinsville620171967
Felt619881986
Matoy620001992
Baron520211967
Bethel520181993
Sandbluff519951992
Arapaho520121992
Cookietown420061968
Rosston420171983
Sickles420211992
Duncan420211987
Phillips320081968
Mill Creek320181967
Loco319841970
Canadian320151967
Welch320181968
Douglas320221967
Beaver320032003
Hollis320141993

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.