BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Kansas has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-89%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has collapsed in Kansas: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.002.3
20260.070.002.2
20270.000.002.1
20280.000.002.1
20290.000.002.1

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chapman1619811967
Humboldt820221969
Galesburg720091967
Covert720221967
Leoville620151969
Ruleton619951993
Thrall519671967
Wellington520241968
Olathe520181967
Albert520211967
Ashland420211971
Wreford420221967
Melrose320181967
Dover320221967
Buckeye320181967
Gray320191967
Grantville320181967
Gove320151970
Bucyrus320232023
Hopewell320102000
Lincolnville320112004
Severance320242000
Lapland220191974
Dalton220231968
Ellinor220221967

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.