BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Florida

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Florida has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in Florida. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Florida is projected to rise about 140% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+140%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±171.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Florida is projected to rise about 140% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.90.0018
20274.80.0018
20284.80.0018
20294.80.0018
20304.80.0018

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sebastian7319921987
Webb3220062006
Winter Gardn2720191987
Aripeka1820251987
Polk City1220251970
Citrus Park1220251989
Micanopy1119911966
Hilliard1120251966
Miccosukee1020251966
Telogia1019851968
Dale Mabry1019881969
New Hope1020112009
Bristol1020231986
Doctors Inlet 21020182008
Doctor Inlet920071967
Mabel820111966
Indiantown820171984
Santa Rosa820031987
Scottsmoor720251968
Dowling Park720231987
Deanville720161987
Lovedale720111987
Ridge Harbor720251991
Ft Waltn Bch620111966
Alturas619861971

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.