BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Mississippi has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has collapsed in Mississippi: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.3 (95% range 0.00–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.3 (95% range 0.00–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.00.008.1
20263.80.007.9
20273.70.007.7
20283.50.007.6
20293.30.007.4

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Commerce2219931966
Mt Carmel2220161974
Trace Lee1820182013
Tchula 21719941976
Tupelo1420221966
Tchula1119751970
Trace Choctaw1120192012
Lake1020241966
Columbia1020181969
Poplarville1019781972
Scooba1019821967
Duffee1020081973
Cybur920191966
Fontainbleau919781966
De Soto920192008
Latimer820191988
Lucien720131967
Walthall719871970
Corinth720241972
Monticello720172007
Holly Springs720242009
Okatibbee L.720081995
Tchula 3720241995
Trace Attala620192016
Cockrum520241966

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.