BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Georgia

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Georgia has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has fallen sharply in Georgia: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Georgia is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 1.1–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Georgia is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 1.1–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.22.014
20268.01.814
20277.81.614
20287.61.414
20297.31.114

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Guyton4419931966
Fairplay3019911966
Hiram2820181975
Darien2420191967
Tazewell2320241967
Hollonville 22320222019
Linwood1820231970
Baxley1520191966
Hollonville1520031973
Douglas1419841978
Owensboro1420242010
Lyons1219941966
Cotton1220241972
Whitesburg1220231992
Union1220232011
Ousley1220242015
Good Hope1220242005
Bowdon1120241973
Keller1119941975
Ware Co1120241986
Davis Crossroads1120212011
Henderson1020241973
Mountain Cty1020241975
Folkston1020221994
Pineora1020181994

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.