BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Georgia

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Georgia has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has fallen sharply in Georgia: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Georgia is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 0.60–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Georgia is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 0.60–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.71.514
20277.51.314
20287.31.014
20297.00.8213
20306.80.6013

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Guyton4419931966
Fairplay3019911966
Hiram2820181975
Darien2420191967
Hollonville 22320222019
Linwood1820231970
Finleyson1720251976
Cotton1620251972
Bowdon1620251973
Tazewell1620251967
Baxley1520191966
Hollonville1520031973
Ware Co1520251986
Kite Lake1520252015
Douglas1419841978
Lyons1219941966
Vidalia1220251995
Lakeview1220252006
Keller1119941975
Stoney Point 21120252013
Folkston1020221994
Pineora1020181994
Shiloh1020252012
Yates Crossroads1020252005
Woodstock1020212006

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.