BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Indiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Indiana has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Indiana is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Indiana is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.20.0013
20266.10.0013
20276.00.0012
20285.90.0012
20295.70.0012

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gary6019991980
Indian Spgs1920241982
Plainfield1719991999
Muncie1619971981
Packertown1520041967
Maplewood1520212000
Anderson1520242000
Middletown1420241966
Evansville1420191966
Wallace1320241999
Jamestown1120241986
Monticello1020241981
Wabash1020241981
Brookville920241966
Washington920241987
Witts Station920242000
Celestine820241979
Cross Plains820241999
South Bend719901966
Thorntown720241982
Spencer720241967
Packertown 2720242005
Knox620231981
Sexton620241981
New Phila620241982

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.