BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in North Dakota has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-46%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in North Dakota is projected to rise about 432% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±204.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+432%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±204.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in North Dakota is projected to rise about 432% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±204.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.000.87
20260.380.000.88
20270.390.000.88
20280.390.000.88
20290.390.000.89

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Chimney Swift in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Abercrombie820121967
Abercrombie 2720172013
Forman220211973
Walcott220211974
Emerado220052005
Montpelier220242007
Nash220131988
Rolla220191995
Zap220181972
Kempton119841984
Braddock120212021
Buchanan120002000
Webster119911991
Carpio119931993
Stanley120062006

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.