BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Texas has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
184Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chimney Swift Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has collapsed in Texas: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chimney Swift Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.002.3
20260.310.002.2
20270.200.002.1
20280.080.001.9
20290.000.001.9

Chimney Swift Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chandler2320041968
Dallas2020241967
Thornton1519841968
Weatherford1320241968
Gause1119971967
Rhome1020241967
Georgetown919851967
E Georgetown919791967
Kosse920231969
Walburg920241980
Easton920131994
Mt. Selman920241998
Wills Point920161994
Smyrna 2920232011
Lag Atascosa820241993
Schroeder819951976
Lance Rosier Bith820172014
Caledonia720241969
Glen Rose720151968
Manor720242012
Twichell720182004
Peach Creek619921968
Ola620221967
Chandler 2620242005
Bayside620031994

Chimney Swift Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.