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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Louisiana has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in Louisiana: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Louisiana is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.2–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Louisiana is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.2–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.91.36.6
20273.91.26.6
20283.91.26.6
20293.91.26.5
20303.81.26.5

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ltl Chenier 24120112010
Sabine Nwr 22620172009
Forked Island 22420112010
Carterville1519921992
Sabine Nwr1420081989
Forked Island1320252008
Creole1219871967
Many1119921989
Ltl Chenier1120251986
Carlisle919881968
Shaw820241967
Fort Jessup820231998
Junior719911987
Easton719901967
Fillmore719891968
Woodlawn720212008
Lacombe619831967
Fishville620171967
Hackberry 2620252018
Grayson620172005
River Road620251987
Baton Rouge620251995
Roseland520251967
Mount Union520251998
Oakdale519941991

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.