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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 78% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 78% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.760.002.1
20270.700.002.0
20280.640.001.9
20290.570.001.9
20300.510.001.8

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blacksburg1920251988
Taylorstown1520101967
Rural Retrt1220251982
Taylorstown 21120252012
Ft Pickett N919951993
Star Tannery820251977
Clinchport719781967
Stickleyvill619901975
Great Falls519781966
Putnam520251969
Newbern519821968
Pungo520251975
Colonial Pky519981992
W Augusta420251967
Concord420241967
Nat Tunnel420251981
Chincoteag W420241992
Cape Charles420181995
Hebron 2420252023
Dryden420251991
Churchville320251966
Stanley320251966
Amherst320251967
Mannboro320251967
Ringgold320221977

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.