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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 76% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-76%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.45Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 76% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.710.002.0
20260.650.001.9
20270.580.001.8
20280.520.001.8
20290.450.001.7

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Taylorstown1520101967
Star Tannery1320241977
Ft Pickett N919951993
Clinchport719781967
Fincastle620241966
Stickleyvill619901975
Rural Retrt620241982
Blacksburg620241988
W Augusta520231967
Tryme520191975
Great Falls519781966
Newbern519821968
Mannboro520241967
Surry520241977
Taylorstown 2520242012
Colonial Pky519981992
Concord420241967
Church Road420241966
Saltville420241969
Brodnax420241973
Brandy Station420242018
Nat Tunnel420241981
Chincoteag W420241992
Cape Charles420181995
Ringgold320221977

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.