BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Connecticut has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has collapsed in Connecticut: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Connecticut is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Connecticut is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.003.1
20261.20.003.0
20271.10.002.9
20281.00.002.8
20290.950.002.8

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren1320111972
Mystic620231973
Sherman620191972
Mid Haddam420231973
Granby420231989
E Hartland319921966
Woodstock320041968
Uncasville220241973
Willimantic220181967
No Woodbury220241967
Long Hill220191972
Southington220231973
Buckingham120121966
Westbrook120171969
Greenwich120151967
Danbury120221968
New Hartford119871972
New Hartford120221994
Woodstock 2120232016
Warren 2120242012

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.