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Species · Connecticut · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Connecticut has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has collapsed in Connecticut: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Connecticut is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Connecticut is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.003.0
20271.10.002.9
20281.10.002.9
20290.980.002.8
20300.910.002.7

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren1320111972
Mystic620231973
Sherman620191972
Granby420251989
E Hartland319921966
Uncasville320251973
Woodstock320041968
Willimantic220181967
Long Hill220191972
Southington220251973
Woodstock 2220252016
Buckingham120121966
Westbrook120171969
No Woodbury120251967
Greenwich120151967
Danbury120221968
Mid Haddam120251973
New Hartford119871972
New Hartford120221994
Warren 2120242012

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.