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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Pennsylvania has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Doe Run1120241969
Starlight919921970
Leola920241998
Greentown820241969
West Grove819961966
Drehersville 2820242000
Sugar Grove720241980
Chatham720241997
Poyntelle620241969
Bendersville620241990
Betula520221973
Arnot520241972
English Ctr519891968
Susquehanna520241971
Pottstown519871966
Roulette 2520242022
Elizabethvil520241995
Harmonsburg420231966
Teepleville420241967
Eldred420221973
Rasselas420221976
Rush420241970
Millville420241969
Ryde420051970
Mifflintown420241968

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.