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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Pennsylvania has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.71.22.2
20271.71.22.2
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20291.71.22.2
20301.71.22.2

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Starlight919921970
Drehersville 2920252000
Leola920241998
Greentown820241969
Doe Run820251969
West Grove819961966
Schaefferstown 2820252008
Wild Creek820251988
Jefferson720251966
Poyntelle620251969
Bendersville620241990
N Washington520251975
Betula520221973
Arnot520251972
English Ctr519891968
Honesdale520251972
Pottstown519871966
Elizabethvil520241995
Chatham520251997
Eldred420221973
Rasselas420221976
Rush420251970
Bow Bridge420241969
Beaver420251969
Ryde420051970

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.