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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Minnesota has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Minnesota is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.64–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.64–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Minnesota is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.64–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.763.5
20272.10.733.4
20282.00.703.4
20292.00.673.4
20302.00.643.3

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherburne Nr1820251990
Big Stone1820121995
Bagley1620061995
Greenbush1520251993
Tracy1220252004
Beltrami1120251967
Chatfield 21120252003
Huntley920251967
Little Fork920241969
Austin920231993
Fairmont920251993
Worthington820252005
Oklee720211969
Edwards620241973
New London620241994
Glenwood620191993
Chokio North620251993
Lockhart620251993
Princeton520251969
Cromwell520251967
Brook Park520251999
Minnetonka420251969
Appleton420251978
Floodwood420251967
Bena419771967

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.