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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Minnesota has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-17%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Minnesota is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.60–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Minnesota is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.60–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.733.4
20262.00.703.4
20272.00.673.3
20282.00.643.3
20291.90.603.3

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Stone1820121995
Bagley1620061995
Sherburne Nr1520241990
Franklin1220241993
Chatfield 21120242003
Tracy1020242004
Little Fork920241969
Austin920231993
Oklee720211969
Greenbush720241993
Edwards620241973
Fairmont620231993
Le Center620231994
New London620241994
Glenwood620191993
Huntley520241967
Chandler520231969
Waskish520241978
Le Roy520241993
Worthington520242005
Ash Creek420241975
Lakeville420191968
Minnetonka420241969
Knapp420241967
Appleton420241978

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.